3 Ways to Identify Non-Incremental Channels
If a channel looks too good to be true, it’s likely non-incremental. While these channels might seem to deliver high ROI, the actual return can be 5 to 10 times lower. Without the ability to spot key warning signs, marketers risk wasting millions of dollars on ineffective ad spend.
In this article, I’ll outline three effective methods to identify and quantify non-incremental spend, ensuring that every marketing dollar drives real growth.
Paid vs Organic Analysis
Organic users typically represent the highest intent audience with superior metrics in conversion rate, retention, and product engagement. These users are often returning customers who already have a strong affinity for the brand, making their behavior distinctly different from paid users, who generally include a mix of new and cold audiences.
When paid traffic exhibits suspiciously similar performance metrics to organic users—such as matching conversion rates or retention patterns—it raises a red flag for potential non-incremental results driven by organic poaching.
Some channels may have a mix of legitimate and poached traffic, making analyses more complicated. A deeper view can reveal clearer insights by segmenting performance metrics by things like click vs view, CTR/IPM, and purchase mix.
Geo Lift Tests
A simple and effective way to detect potential organic poaching is by running geo lift tests. Observe what happens to organics when you turn paid campaigns on and off in specific regions. If turning paid campaigns on/off repeatedly decreases/increases organic volume it’s likely a sign of organic poaching.
For the results to be meaningful, the paid channel being tested should account for at least 10% of daily organic installs. This ensures that any changes in organic performance are large enough to stand out from normal fluctuations.
To minimize the impact of day-to-day variability, it’s best to run these tests in weekly cycles—one week on, one week off—while closely monitoring changes in organic installs.
3P Tool: INCRMNTAL
INCMRNTAL is a third-party solution designed to measure true incremental lift by applying machine learning and statistical modeling to predict the actual CPI for channels and campaigns.
I prefer using INCRMNTAL, but regardless of the tool that is used, I recommend taking data from three different snapshots over time and averaging the results to improve reliability. This approach helps smooth out short-term fluctuations and provides a more consistent picture of campaign performance. If the tool continually reports a significantly higher CPI than expected, it could indicate organic cannibalization, signaling that a portion of your paid traffic is poaching high-intent organic users.
Conclusion
Non-incremental channels can quietly erode marketing efficiency, costing millions in wasted ad spend. By closely analyzing organic CVR, running geo lift tests, and leveraging tools like INCMRNTAL, marketers can uncover hidden cases of organic poaching.
Hope you enjoyed the read! If you’re a B2C business looking to achieve higher ROI on your ad spend, I’m currently taking on a limited number of new clients. The best way to get in contact is to click the button down below—I’d love to help drive meaningful growth for your business.
